👽AI Return Nowcaster

Simulating the Expected Returns of Private Equity Funds

The AI Return Nowcaster allows you to forecast the short-term future of private capital fund (so-called nowcasting). We provide two methods to price a PE fund stake in the case of an upcoming secondary sale/purchase (via SDF Price Range and NAV Discount). Moreover, the expected fund retuns over the next 4 quarters can be forecast by the Short-Term Return Nowcast endpoint. In this context, we define the term Artificial Intelligence (AI) mainly as model combination of multiple statistical models to achive superior forecast results.

Academic Background

The AI Return Nowcaster covers many popular factor models (also known as Stochastic Discount Factors [SDFs]) for private equity fund returns like

• Driessen, Lin, Phalippou (2012)

• Ang, Chen, Goetzmann, Phalippou (2018)

• Brown, Ghysels, Gredil (2023)

Additionally, Nadauld, Sensoy, Vorkink, Weisbach (2019) provide the only published model for so-called NAV discounts observed for PE secondary transactions.

API Endpoints

• air_nowcaster/short_term_return_nowcast

• air_nowcaster/sdf_price_range

• air_nowcaster/nav_discount