🤖Deal Exit Simulator

Simulating the Exit Cash Flows of Private Equity Deals

The Deal Exit Simulator allows you to simulate the exit cash flows of a single private equity deal. Our model consists of a stastical model for the exit timing and a model for the exit multiple. Both random variables are then linked by a copula. When the Deal Exit Simulator is applied to all underlying deals of a PE fund, it can be used to simulate the gross-of-fee cash flows of that fund. On a single deal level, it can be used to understand the risk-return profile of Buyout or Venture Capital deals.

Academic Background

The Deal Exit Simulator is based on Tausch, Buchner, Schlüchtermann (2022).

API Endpoints

The Deal Exit Simulator offers four endpoints with simulated deal exit timing:

• tbs_22/cash_flow_expectations

• tbs_22/cash_flow_percentiles

• tbs_22/cash_flow_paths

• tbs_22/exit_timing_multiple_mean_stdv

Moreover, the Deal Exit Simulator offers four endpoints with fixed deal exit timing (i.e., deal exit timing is user input via query parameter):

• tbs_22/fixed_exit_time/cash_flow_expectations

• tbs_22/fixed_exit_time/cash_flow_percentiles

• tbs_22/fixed_exit_time/cash_flow_paths

• tbs_22/fixed_exit_time/exit_timing_multiple_mean_stdv